When I saw they were down almost $100 a share in after hours trading yesterday I knew today was going to be a down day for the market. You’d just about need a signed deal ending the trade war with China (allegedly resolved one way or the other within weeks) to get markets back up …
Category Archives: Market Shifts
Fads, Trends & Timelines
ROKU was on fire yesterday as the market turned up. It is already up over 90% so far this year, in part due to a particularly weak performance as the stock market cratered in Q4 last year. A few weeks ago analyst after analyst downgraded Roku, but on Monday Susquehanna analyst Shyam Patil upgraded it …
Health Sector Not So Healthy
The health sector cratered yesterday on fear of ‘Medicare for All’ gutting the sector. The stock is down 13.3% so far in April, on track for its biggest one-month decline since February 2009 when it fell 30.64%. UnitedHealth shares initially rose Tuesday after it reported first-quarter earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street’s expectations. But the …
Up, Down, Up
It appears as though Winnie the Pooh has figured out the market. On ultra dovish Fed the market jumped slightly & then sold off, then was on fire the following day & on day 3 just ahead of a weekend it appears to have changed directions once more. Yesterday even some low beta value plays …
Federal Reserve Winds Down Balance Sheet Wind Down
Coming into today lots of people were net long ahead of the Federal Reserve announcement & remembered the pain of the prior two meetings, so there was a sell off early in trading. Those who put money to work ahead of the Fed’s announcement saw decent gains as the market recovered somewhat on the new …
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A Bull Market Masks Many Sins
It is easy to attribute strong returns to one’s own skill & greatness, but any day some crazy event like an earthquake or war could massively tank the markets. When the stock market goes up broadly momentum stocks work, but then when the market is really strong overall sometimes there isn’t even a lot of …
Retail Fail
Kroger’s quarter bombed on lower sales, lower guidance, and lower profits. A triple lindy trifecta of pure winning. I traded the dead cat bounce on it for a quick gain. Shares were down about 12.8% when I bought & around 10% when I sold. “Its shares slid 11.6 percent in morning trade after it also …
As Seen on YouTube!!!
Sector rotation continued yesterday with some emerging market plays like Ctrip up big, bring up other smaller parallel plays like MakeMyTrip. Despegar might be a higher leverage way to play OTAs in emerging markets, though the sort of “national champion” model promoted by China & which India aims to emulate will likely provide a greater …
Rising Rate Environment Meets Market Reflexivity
Almost nothing looked good yesterday & the market was off a couple percent across the board, giving a third straight down day. Longer duration bonds have pulled back from recent highs, with the market suggesting the Fed won’t hike many more times this cycle. something happened October 3rd when Powell said the US was “still …
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The Midterm Election
As mentioned in the prior post, I thought the recent Trump tweets about progress with Xi were an attempt to goose the market ahead of the midterms next Tuesday. Most likely the House of Representatives flips to being Democrat controlled. If it does, pharma stocks are likely to get beaten up as hard-left outsiders call …