OSTK has fallen off a cliff since the delayed GSR investment. On Monday, Overstock announced that GSR Capital had sought out an extension on an investment they were slated to close over the weekend that would have printed a billion dollar valuation on tZERO and likely would have sent Overstock’s equity price significantly higher. Once …
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Rising Rate Environment Meets Market Reflexivity
Almost nothing looked good yesterday & the market was off a couple percent across the board, giving a third straight down day. Longer duration bonds have pulled back from recent highs, with the market suggesting the Fed won’t hike many more times this cycle. something happened October 3rd when Powell said the US was “still …
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Risk On / Big Up Day
Funko was up over 4% today. I sold off 40% of the shares of Funko I was holding. I also sold Exxon Mobil at open for a nice gain. I bought some more XOM again around $77 & just sold it off again at about $77.40. If it goes under $77 I wouldn’t mind buying a …
Fade the Tweet
Another trade war negotiations working utterly fantastic well hugely big Tweet from the president provides a ramp for the stock market to open up. Very productive conversations going on with China! Watch for some important announcements! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 11, 2018 I used that & the Libya oil issue to exit the …
Another Mid-day Slide & Recovery
On the 6th I sold off a bit of Funko for a few hundred dollar gain. I picked up a bit of AT&T on the 6th which I sold on the 7th for a few hundred dollar gain. On the 15th of November I put a bit into various muni bonds like MYD, IIM, NAD …
Exited Zillow Early
On Monday I sold out of the remaining portion of the Zillow position I had after it popped about 10% on news of insider buying. I thought it might slide into close as shorts re-established positions at a higher base, but not so much. That thing has kept going up & closed up 12% on …
Zillow Premier Agent Business Model Shift
Apparently, we are once again deep into FOMO: “We’ve had clients across the board call in and ask where to put their money,” said Tom Stringfellow, president and chief investment officer of San Antonio-based Frost Investment Advisors. “Investors aren’t making any mass movement trying to get out of the markets, but they’re really looking for …
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The Midterm Election
As mentioned in the prior post, I thought the recent Trump tweets about progress with Xi were an attempt to goose the market ahead of the midterms next Tuesday. Most likely the House of Representatives flips to being Democrat controlled. If it does, pharma stocks are likely to get beaten up as hard-left outsiders call …
Trillion Dollar Tweets
On the most recent stock market sell off longer duration bonds did not strengthen anywhere near as much as they had historically. Bond yields fell slightly, but only slightly. Whereas in stock market sell offs prior to this year bonds usually strengthened. Very, very important chart: The equity market selloff did not result in significant …
Hide Out From Volatility in Bitcoin
One big issue with mean reversion trades is when the range breaks it can break HARD & FAST. If you use tons of leverage on mean reversion you can get hit hard when the range breaks. A couple of my favorite mean reverting / rangebound stocks over the past few months were Funko & AT&T. …