Many sectors of value stocks have been murdered with horrible under-performance over the past decade to 14 years. Set the Fed Funds Rate to zero, have the ECB go negative with rates and even Greek bonds throw up a negative yield. Literally junk bonds with negative yields. Greece’s three-year debt turned negative on Friday, and …
Author Archives: scores
Positioning for More Trump
Donald J. Trump may not be a great person, but it is hard to make him sound any less appealing than the following If you give into terrorist garbage the terrorists do not suddenly become decent human beings. There is no end to the “social” justice inversion of reality until outcomes are (more than) equalized …
Riots & Private Prisons
I first pitched this idea on Twitter about a week ago in response to celebrities lining up to bail out violent protestors. I figured this would be the almost ideal hedge on #WOKE culture that escalates and excuses violence. The relative percent of the US population which is incarcerated is absurd by international standards. 2.3 …
Long XOM
Today may be the bottom for ExxonMobil. A triple (or quadruple? quintuple? octuple?) lindy of factors confluence in a culmination of pure culmination. The stock has went nowhere in a decade & is off about 13% so far this year after under-performing the market last year. We are not trading far off the 2010 lows. …
It’s Probably Nothing
QE4 is well underway… … orderly markets are contained globally. While the market as a whole is treading water, some software names continue to get beaten down. And some of the “pilot to copilot, we goin down in flames” names have seen their sharpest reversals in decades. PETS recently had its biggest one-day gain in …
Free Trade & Investment
The stock markets are up big over the past couple days on optimism around trade talks between China and President Trump. Trump is really trying to goose the stock market, talking past the sale Monday is Columbus day, so when trade discussions conclude with tariffs delayed but no actual deal that will likely be ugly …
Indexes Hide Carnage
One year ago tomorrow Jay Powell said we’re “a long way” from neutral interest rates. That was the cue for the stock market to crater. Which it did right until Christmas of last year. This year’s strong performance is nothing but the market offsetting last year’s Q4 carnage. Zoom out to the beginning of 2018 …
Taking a Break
The market is up higher on optimism around trade, or increased central bank intervention to prevent market risk from being realized, or something else. And so many of the momentum stocks have been crushed of late. Meanwhile some beaten down value play stocks have been moving like penny stocks, with 5% daily moves. And so many …
Trillion Dollar Tweets, Again
It makes sense for the stock market to be on fire today. The US president recently taunted Russia over an accident with a failed nuclear weapon China is amassing troops near the Hong Kong border & there was violence at the Hong Kong airport. Argentina’s stock market lost 48% of its value in USD terms …
A Dealership Full of Cars.com
I think the Cars.com sell off is more than a bit overdone and have been an avid dip buyer over the past couple days. It hasn’t felt particularly comfortable watching the stock careen lower and lower, but in reality the company is valued at about 1/3 of what it was valued at when a deep …